Why Democrats need a miracle to win control of state Senate & House

State Capitol of Michigan in Lansing.

It’s going to take a near miracle for Democrats, even during the so-called Blue Wave, to take over both chambers of the Michigan Legislature.

A Motor City Muckraker analysis found that Democrats must win a vast majority of the eight toss up seats to take back the Senate and most of the 16 toss up seats in the House to regain both chambers.

If polls prove to be accurate, Democrats will win the governor’s seat, and Republicans will narrowly keep control of both legislative bodies. Republicans currently control the legislative and executive branches in Michigan.

But in politics, anything can happen, especially as young people and people frustrated with President Trump are expected to turn out in droves.

So what is a “toss up” seat? We examined voting results from the primary election, the 2016 presidential election and myriad news reports on each race to determine which seats are the most vulnerable.

Here’s what it will take for Democrats to win state Senate. Democrats must win the following Senate districts that are held by Republicans: #7, #12, #13, #15, #20, #24, #29, #32 and #34.

In the state House, Democrats must win a vast majority of the following toss up districts held by Republicans: #20, #38, #39, #40 #41, #61, #62 and #71. They must also win every toss up district currently held by Democrats: #13, #18, #23, #31, #50, #67, #109 and #110.

To see who is running in each district, visit our friends at Michigan Political Almanac.

Steve Neavling

Steve Neavling lives and works in Detroit as an investigative journalist. His stories have uncovered corruption, led to arrests and reforms and prompted FBI investigations.